El Niño Drought Risk Grows for Southern Africa’s 2027 Harvest
By News

Southern Africa is entering its main rainy season under the shadow of a very strong El Niño, and forecasters and food security analysts are warning that the biggest risks lie ahead in the 2027 harvest. A GEOGLAM Crop Monitor special report published on 16 October 2026 said the risk of drought is elevated across the region during the 2026 to 27 main cropping season, with below-average rainfall expected across much of southern Africa from October 2026 to March 2027. For millions of households that rely on rain-fed maize, the coming months will decide whether next year brings recovery or a renewed hunger crisis.

What the forecasts say

The regional climate outlook agreed at the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) in Swakopmund, Namibia, in late August predicted below-normal October, December rainfall for southern Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, central and southern Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana and most of South Africa, according to the Crop Monitor report. The same report said normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for most of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, north-western Angola, northern Zambia, northern Malawi and northern Mozambique. It added that models predict much higher than normal temperatures during the November 2026 to April 2027 growing season.

A briefing note published by Welthungerhilfe on 13 October said El Niño has reached very strong intensity and is expected to remain very strong through late 2026. It described southern Africa as having entered “a critical agricultural preparedness period”, with delayed or erratic onset of rains, dry spells and high temperatures expected across important southern and central areas. Its watch list for October 2026 to March 2027 includes Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, southern Zambia, southern Angola, Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia and southern Madagascar.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), in a special report dated 6 October, identified Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique, southern Malawi, southern Zambia, southern Angola, southern Madagascar and Lesotho as the areas of highest concern. FEWS NET noted that the region begins the season after a cereal harvest it put at nearly 10 per cent above the five-year average, but said acute food insecurity is expected to be most severe during the November 2027 to March 2028 lean season.

A delayed crisis, not an immediate one

The timing matters. Good 2026 carryover stocks may cushion markets in the near term, Welthungerhilfe said, but “the larger food-security risk lies in the 2027 harvest and subsequent lean season”. That creates a window for preparation that humanitarian agencies are keen not to miss.

An El Niño preparedness alert issued in August by OCHA’s Regional Office for Southern and Eastern Africa, together with SADC and regional partners, estimated that 13.3 million people were already experiencing acute food insecurity across southern Africa. It said Zimbabwe and Mozambique had activated drought anticipatory action, while Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Lesotho and Eswatini had protocols or preparedness plans in place. Across 13 countries, the alert listed 84 planned anticipatory actions intended to reach nearly 12 million people at a cost of USD 111.3 million, but said around 80 per cent of planned activities were unfunded. It described October as “a critical threshold”, warning that later funding may come too late to prevent avoidable losses to crops, livestock and livelihoods.

Governments are also acting. A Climate Current report from September said Zimbabwe is targeting one million hectares under its Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme and plans to build strategic grain reserves to 450,000 tonnes, while Mozambique’s disaster management institute had activated drought preparedness plans in 10 districts in Gaza and Inhambane provinces.

What it means for the sector and affected communities

For farming families, the immediate concerns are planting decisions, seed choice and water. For NGOs and UN agencies, the coming months are likely to bring a shift towards anticipatory action: cash transfers before harvests fail, drought-tolerant seed distribution, livestock support, water point rehabilitation and early-warning messaging. If the forecasts are borne out, programmes will then need to scale up food assistance, nutrition and water, sanitation and hygiene responses through 2027 and into the 2027 to 28 lean season.

The region’s experience of the 2023 to 24 El Niño, which the OCHA alert said pushed more than 29 million people into crisis-level hunger, is shaping that urgency. Funding remains the main uncertainty, given the gap in anticipatory financing reported in August.

What this means for NGO job seekers

Drought preparedness and response create demand across several technical areas. Roles likely to be advertised in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar and neighbouring countries over the next 12 to 18 months include:

  • Food security and livelihoods officers, including agronomists and livestock specialists with climate-smart agriculture experience.
  • Cash and voucher assistance specialists, particularly those familiar with anticipatory or forecast-based cash programmes.
  • Early warning, data and GIS analysts able to work with seasonal forecasts, IPC analysis and monitoring systems.
  • Nutrition and WASH programme staff, as drought typically raises malnutrition and water-related disease risks.
  • Disaster risk reduction and resilience advisers working with governments and community structures.

Practical advice: build familiarity with the IPC framework and anticipatory action concepts such as triggers and pre-arranged financing, which feature increasingly in job descriptions. Local language skills and experience with community-based targeting are valuable for field roles. Browse current openings in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique, see other countries via NGO jobs by country, or search everything on Browse Jobs. Our career resources can help you present technical experience clearly.

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