Iran Conflict Threatens African Food Security, Officials Warn
By News

Rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to the conflict involving Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are putting food security across Africa at risk, according to trade officials and ministers who spoke at UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) World Investment Forum in Doha on 25 and 26 October. A senior UNCTAD official warned that many countries are already cutting back on fertiliser use, a decision that could depress crop yields in 2027. For organisations working on food security, livelihoods and agriculture, the warning points to a difficult season ahead.

What officials said in Doha

As reported by Al Jazeera, the Strait of Hormuz previously carried around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, and its disruption has rippled through African economies. Luz Maria de la Mora, director of UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities, told the outlet that fertiliser prices had risen dramatically and that many countries had decided to reduce their use, which she said would affect next year’s crops and could influence both the availability and price of food. She added that the effects were lasting longer than expected and that the crisis needed resolving “sooner rather than later”.

Ministers from several African countries described how the shock was playing out at home. In Uganda, Al Jazeera reports, fuel prices have more than doubled and the shilling has lost 10 per cent of its value against the US dollar. The country’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives, Sanjay Tanna, argued, however, that Uganda’s reliance on subsistence farming and its own food production had cushioned some of the impact. In Zimbabwe, where more than 70 per cent of the population depends on agriculture, Minister Monica Mutsvangwa focused on attracting investment from a range of partners. Jean-Jacques Bouya, Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Congo, called for Africa to process more of its own raw materials rather than exporting them unprocessed.

Why fertiliser matters so much for Africa

The Doha warnings echo concerns raised by fertiliser specialists for months. In a July bulletin published by the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), the Africa Fertilizer Industry Development Association (AFIDA) noted that approximately 80 per cent of the fertiliser used in sub-Saharan Africa is sourced from international markets. Application rates in the region average about 20 kg per hectare, compared with a global average of roughly 135 kg, so any further reduction falls on farmers who already use relatively little.

The same bulletin listed the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the 2026 disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as successive shocks that pushed prices up. It highlighted additional burdens on landlocked countries, gaps in financing and the problem of substandard or adulterated products, and said these challenges disproportionately affect women and young farmers.

A later Sustain Africa bulletin, from August, explained the link between energy and fertiliser: natural gas is a key input for nitrogen fertiliser, while higher freight and insurance costs and rerouted shipping add to the final price. It cited Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warnings that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts of a strong El Niño. The bulletin recommended that analysts track four indicators: fertiliser prices and shipping flows; energy, fuel and freight costs; El Niño weather and crop conditions; and what farmers are actually applying in their fields.

What it means for the sector and affected communities

For households that grow much of their own food, lower fertiliser use may translate into smaller harvests. For urban and food-buying households, higher fuel and transport costs feed directly into market prices. Humanitarian and development organisations may therefore face rising needs at a time when budgets in many parts of the sector are already stretched.

The situation also strengthens the case, made in both the AFIDA and Sustain Africa material, for longer-term investment in regional fertiliser production, better financing for agro-dealers and farmers, quality control, and the use of the African Continental Free Trade Area to move inputs more efficiently across borders. Programmes on soil health, climate-smart agriculture and market systems are likely to receive renewed attention from governments and donors.

What this means for NGO job seekers

Price shocks of this kind tend to increase demand for professionals who can measure, anticipate and respond to food insecurity. Skills likely to be valued include:

  • Food security and market analysis, monitoring prices, conducting market assessments and contributing to early-warning systems.
  • Agronomy and agricultural extension, supporting farmers to use inputs efficiently, improve soil fertility and adopt alternatives such as integrated soil fertility management.
  • Livelihoods and cash programming, designing cash and voucher assistance that responds to rising prices.
  • Agri-finance and value chains, working with agro-dealers, cooperatives and financial institutions to improve access to inputs.
  • Monitoring, evaluation and data, tracking the indicators specialists say matter most, from input prices to crop conditions.

Candidates applying for these roles should be ready to show practical experience with market data, community engagement and adaptive programming. If you are looking for your next role, browse current NGO vacancies or search NGO jobs by country, including NGO jobs in Uganda and NGO jobs in Zimbabwe. Our career resources offer guidance on tailoring your CV for technical programme roles.

Sources